French Morning continues its pre-election series “Me, French and American voter”. We are going to meet bi-nationals across the country who will help us discover the challenges of the election, and the specificities of the system.
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Solid Republican for forty years, can Texas switch? Fueled by polls that are getting closer (winner with more than 9 points in advance in 2016, Donald Trump only has an average of 4% in the polls against Joe Biden), this Democratic dream is fueling much speculation in the press .
Based in the United States for 35 years, Dominique Moran hardly believes in it. This binational, regional director of a wine and champagne house, is convinced that the media do not reflect reality. ” No one knows the percentage of “silent voices”. The press is biased and does not listen to deep America. Many are ashamed to admit voting for Donald Trump because the character is annoying, but Republican values remain anchored here “, He assures.
Yet beyond even the polls, Democrats have some good reason to look with envy at the 38 electorate voters promised to the Texas winner. The population has indeed changed; urban centers have exploded – almost all of these big cities have democratic mayors – and the population is much more diverse. In one generation, the demographic weight of Latinos has tripled. ” They are young, representative of ethnic diversity, employed in large companies and indeed constitute a new anti-Trump breeding ground, recognizes Dominique Moran. So the demography of the state is not what it was ten or twenty years ago. The rural Republican population at heart is old ”. And the image of suburbs that Donald Trump defends is undoubtedly outdated. The time has passed for “white flight”From the 1960s: today’s suburbs are also very diverse, such as Fort Bend County – the richest in the state – west of Houston where a minority of whites live together with a strong class upper middle Asian in particular. Waving the red rag of diversity like Donald Trump is doing could be counterproductive.
The economy, Trump’s trump card?
But Dominique Moran warns against a simplistic demographic interpretation which would mean that the Hispanic – or minorities – vote is necessarily democratic: “Here, more and more Hispanics are voting for Donald Trump. Republicans have made their lives better. It is the same for the American black class, largely supported and helped by this government. Nothing had been done for them before under the Obama period », Considers Dominique Moran. If the Covid-19 has changed the situation, the economy remains despite everything a trump card of Donald Trump. Texans continue to credit the outgoing president with the very strong growth – and historically low unemployment rate – that he could boast of before the pandemic.
“It remains perceived by many as the best placed to manage the economic recovery”, believes Dominique Moran, who sees this as Donald Trump’s best card. “The economic stakes are too high in Texas. Not sure that the oil companies will let the Democrats appropriate the second richest state in the country. Hydraulic fracturing or fracking is also a point of contention but vital for this industry. Texans are very nationalistic but not demonstrative. Finally, we do not change president during a war or a crisis because the unknown is too dangerous ”, concludes the Franco-American, convinced that Texas will not change color at least not this time.
